MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2168
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI...NW OH
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
  
   VALID 101735Z - 101930Z
  
   WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
  
   WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN
   TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS FAR
   NORTH AS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH
   HAS OCCURRED PAST HOUR OR SO JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
   TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER FORCING...TOWARD THE SOUTH BEND IND AREA.
   
  
   WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
   A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...FURTHER EVOLUTION INTO
   SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT DAMAGING WINDS IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT.
   NARROW LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
   FORT WAYNE IND... TOLEDO/FINDLAY OH...AND DETROIT MI AREAS BY THE
   21/22Z TIME FRAME.